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Posted on July 30, 2010 by Don Willis
I just bought a new flat screen TV for my daughter. Before I bought it I spent a couple hours on the Internet researching different models and comparing prices from different Retailers. Good thing I did because I didn’t know that 120 Hz screens have the best performance for video games!
It’s the same thing with coins. I only spent $900 on the TV but I know I spent more time learning about my options then some coin buyers do before spending far greater amounts on a coin. So what should you do before you buy a coin? (By the way the exact same information applies when you are selling.) I have always thought there are three basic pieces of information that are essential to know before buying: population; APR (auction prices realized) and pricing. Let’s dig into each a little more.
A population report can tell you a lot. Not only do you want to know how many coins have been graded in the grade you are considering but you want to know how many are graded higher and lower and how the distribution of grades looks. Let’s say you are looking at an AU58 coin. There may be 6 coins in AU58 with another 14 coins in AU50-55 and 80 or so below that. But in Mint State there are only 2 coins in MS61, 1 in MS62 and 1 in MS63. Well your AU58 is a Condition Census (top 5) grade! You can surmise that this coin in AU58 or better probably doesn’t trade too often and price guides are always going to be a little out of date. Sometimes it’s also very helpful to know how many coins have been graded for the entire series in the grade you are considering. For example if you are considering a deep cameo proof (DCAM) you definitely want to know how many DCAMs are found in that series. And so on. Don’t just look at the population for the specific grade of a specific coin. Look at similar coins and similar grades throughout the series and you’ll get a much better perspective of the scarcity of your coin.
Auction Prices Realized is a powerful tool because that’s where you learn what other people have actually paid for your coin (sometimes you can even find the coin you are considering in the auction archives!). Not only can you see the prices paid but you’ll get a quick lesson on how often this coin appears in the market. In our example if you see a single AU58 selling in the past 2 years and no mint state coins that tells you a lot. What do you think you should do if you don’t see either selling for the past 5 years? If you really need the coin you better run out and pay the seller what ever he wants because you probably won’t get the chance to buy the coin again for a long time! Photographs included in auction prices realized are very helpful because you can compare your coin with the coins that have sold and compare quality. Often times you have to resort to extrapolations when trying to figure value because you can’t find the exact information you need. In some cases where there is very little information you can find a similar coin (same series, similar mintage, same strike – proof vs. mint state) and make some guesstimates based on APRs for that coin. This does work. When looking at older auction records try to keep in mind market cycles. How does the market at the time of that sale compare to today’s market? Also, don’t forget that “auction fever” is very real and just because one bidder got carried away doesn’t mean that’s the right value for the coin. The bottom line is that you want to have all the information you can find. Hopefully it turns out that you know more than your counterpart in the transaction!
Price guides can also be very useful. Prices guides are typically very accurate for coins that trade regularly. Watching the guides and knowing when coin values are going up or down is good information to have. Pay attention to pricing trends. Understand that the less a coin trades (you’ll know this from the previous two information sources) the less current the price guide will be. Also knowing where the price guides get their raw data is very helpful. You want something that is updated frequently and reflects what is happening in today’s market. It’s possible that you could realize that the price guide information is a little out of date for your coin but your counterpart may not know that. Advantage – you!
Now you are ready to buy your coin. You can bid with confidence or negotiate from a position of strength. It really doesn’t take too long to research a coin – less than an hour usually. The time you spend will be well worth it. I can’t promise you that you will get a better deal but I can promise that you will be more satisfied with the deal now that you know so much more about your coin.
Posted on July 20, 2010 by Don Willis
Once the short set (1941-1947) is complete many collectors graduate to the middle set. This set runs from 1934 – 1940. The toughest date to find in fully struck condition is by far the 1935-D. It will take some patience and luck to find a fully struck 35-D. You should be prepared to pay a substantial premium as most dealers seem to be aware of the striking characteristics of this date. A little easier to find but still difficult to locate with a full strike is the 1934-S. This can be obtained with little premium. It will take a lot of looking, but the middle set can be assembled in full or nearly full strike. I had a client who assembled a middle set and short set over a period of several years. He would often stop by and we would go through my inventory and upgrade his collection if we could. He ended up with a really top notch, fully struck set. To his credit he sold me the set, in trade for gold, just before gold began its big run up. I sold the coins. Boy, do I regret that now!
The early set, from 1916-1933, is where it gets really interesting. Supposedly all the dates can be found in gem although the 1919-D is nearly impossible. When I assembled my set in the late 80s – early 90s I could not find a 1919-D or a 1921-S in full gem. Based on my experience, in gem condition the 1919-D and 1921-S are followed in scarcity by the 1918-D, 1917-S Obverse, 1917-D Reverse and 1919-S. Also, many early dates are rarely seen fully struck. It has been speculated that there was a period of time during which the Denver mint deliberately spaced dies slightly farther apart in an effort to prolong their useful life. The 1918-D, 1919-D and 1920-D all are typically very poorly struck. The only nearly fully struck 1919-D that I have ever seen was a PCGS AU58. Several of the S mint dates were weakly struck as well including those made in 1923, 1927 and 1928. Well struck examples will bring a large premium. I remember going after a nearly full strike 1927-S a few years ago in auction and watching as it brought nearly 4 times what I thought it would. All the P mint dates can be found well struck and in gem as can all the coins minted in 1916 and 1917 (except the two mentioned). Coins from 1929 and 1933 can also be found well struck in gem. Assembling a top notch early set will take a great deal of time and a fair amount of money.
When I was putting my set together I searched for a 1921-S in gem for years. I got impatient (one of the most common collector mistakes) and bought a coin in MS62. I never liked it. Then one Friday night Bruce Fox came by my house with a gorgeous, blast white, very well struck, MS64 1921-S. Eureka! It wasn’t an MS65 but it was close. I was overjoyed and quickly wrote the check for $19,500. The following Monday morning I received a call from another dealer who knew I was looking for a 21-S. “Don, I have found a special coin that you need. It’s in the mail and you should be getting it in a day or two.” When I opened the package it was another 21-S in MS64. It looked to me like the spitting image of the one that I had just bought. After searching for that date for so long I couldn’t pass it up and bought it as well (after talking him down to $19,500). I now owned three 1921-S coins! My entire set was MS65, all graded by PCGS, except for the 1921-S and the 1919-D (the best example I could find was MS63). What a beautiful site it was to lay out on the dining room table the entire set of blast white, well struck products of this gorgeous design!
A couple of things that I always look for when buying Walkers, besides the strike, are: I avoid coins with the dark spot of Liberty’s left breast. This is often seen, even on very high grade examples. I avoid coins with marks in the rays of the sun. I find them very distractive. I also avoid coins with hash marks on Liberty’s head. Liberty’s head is a high point and many coins have 2-3 heavy marks running horizontally through her head. I look for blast white coins – not dipped out – but coins with full halo luster. They are special. Of course some of the early dates in gem are nearly impossible to find all white.
I hope you have fun collecting this great series. I know I did.
Posted on July 6, 2010 by Don Willis
Walkers have always been one of the most popular United States issues to collect. For starters the design, by Adolph A. Weinman, is acknowledged as one of the most beautiful of any US coin. The entire series runs from 1916 through 1947 with 65 dates and mint marks. The series can be collected in many different ways and is often divided into three sub-series: the short set 1941-1947 (20 coins); the middle set 1934-1940 (19 coins) and the early set 1916-1933 (26 coins). There have been several good reference books written on the series. My favorite was written a couple decades ago by Bruce Fox, who helped me assemble a complete gem set in the early 90s.
Finding each date and mint mark in gem condition can be very difficult. The 1919-D is the scarcest date of the entire series in full gem but there are several other dates that are tough to find as well. However you can find all the coins in circulated condition without much difficulty. Once in the mid-90s I was on a business trip to the East Coast. My hotel was connected to a mall and I had a couple hours to kill so I wandered over to check it out. In the middle of the mall some guy had a couple 4×8 tables pushed together covered with a gigantic pile of half dollars. You could pick out any coin you wanted for $3 each. I pulled out over 100 pre-1934 mint marked Walkers over the next two hours! I settled up with him and loaded all the coins into my briefcase. Those were the days before 911 so you could carry anything through the airport without a problem. Years later when I was a coin dealer I would occasionally do a small show where I would have hundreds of circulated Walkers for sale and bought many circ sets as well.
In choice and gem uncirculated the most popular and affordable set is the short set from 1941 – 1947. The key day is the 1941-S, followed by the 1942-S. The secret to assembling a great set is knowing that not all gems are created equally. A fully struck 41-S is very difficult to find and is much scarcer than an average struck coin. Since no distinction is made in the pricing guides between fully struck and average struck Walkers there is a great opportunity in this series for the astute collector. [My definition of a fully struck Walker is: full thumb with knuckles showing and a rounded hand, full head and hair, and full skirt lines.] With some patience a complete short set of fully struck coins can be found. For several years I had a client who was assembling a complete set of fully struck Walkers. He would replace a partially struck MS65 in his collection with a fully struck MS63. He was also compiling striking characteristics on every date and mint mark. His study focused on three areas: the head, the hand and the skirt lines. Since I sold many Walkers for a period of time he would spend hours at my table examining every Walker in my inventory and compiling statistics on each coin. Reviewing his notes was very interesting. He promised to publish his work just as soon as he finished his collection. I hope he hasn’t forgotten that he promised me a copy of his book!
to be continued…
Posted on June 15, 2010 by Don Willis
Bonjour to all our new friends in Paris. PCGS just concluded its first week of grading onsite in our new offices in Paris France. The anticipation on the part of all the PCGS personnel involved as well as PCGS authorized dealers from around the European Union was intense as we began accepting submissions last Monday. The turnout was quite good as many dealers from around Europe brought in a wide variety of coins for us to grade. Coins delivered to us on Monday and Tuesday were returned graded on Thursday and Friday just as promised. We were all a little bit like kids in a candy store wondering what we would be given to grade while the submitters awaited receiving their grades with great anticipation. We gave several tours of our operation, which as some of you know is rather unusual for us. Curiosity ran strong as everyone wanted to learn about grading and see first hand what our operation consisted of. Hats off to Muriel Emery, PCGS Director of International Operations and the manager of our Paris office, for a fantastic job of pulling together this event. Thanks also to our crack Operations and IT groups for a flawless inaugural trip. We may have been a few thousand miles from home, but the entire PCGS team put on a superb performance – as usual.
Paris is such a beautiful city. We didn’t have much time to play tourist but with the sun setting around 10:30 PM there was a little time to get around at the end of each day. My favorite thing about Paris is people watching. There are thousands of cafes with outdoor tables facing the sidewalks where everyone sips their coffee and engages in a process of mutual admiration!
We are looking forward to our next trip which will be in early September after everyone has returned from their month long August holiday. Stayed tuned for further details. Until then – au revior!
Posted on May 15, 2010 by Don Willis
Wow, it’s been a while since my last post. I need to do this more often!
Here we are again in Vegas wrapping up another Members Only show. The show opened to the public on Thursday. There was quite a buzz going already when two of the stars of the TV show Pawnstars walked in. I had an interesting conversation with the founder and owner, known as “The Old Man”. Pawnstars are located in Vegas and have seen tremendous growth as a result of the TV exposure. We were happy that they decided to have their coins graded by PCGS.
All the dealers reported strong sales and purchase activity. Yes, on the surface this looks like a small show but there is much more activity than you might imagine. I spoke with at least a couple dealers who bought and sold over $2 million here. Both dealers and collectors seemed pleased with the results. I have had several dealers tell me that they pick up at least one major new customer at every Members Only show.
As expected, there were quite a few submission under the new Secure Plus service with many new coins being made in + grades. Look for the PCGS pop report updates in the next few days.
We are all saying our goodbyes and looking forward to the next Members Only show in July!
Posted on February 19, 2010 by Don Willis
I am here in Vegas as another successful PCGS Members show starts to wind down. Yesterday we had over 70 visitors. One gentleman came all the way from Scotland to attend! Another drove all the way from Florida! This is a great venue and the shows are a unique opportunity for PCGS collectors and dealers, but I was amazed at the great distance these guys would travel to attend! On Thursday Jeff Oxman and Mike Faraone hosted a lively discussion on collecting VAMs. Several expert collectors were in attendance and the conversation was very engaging. At each Members show we keep the number of dealers setting up to two dozen or less. This keeps it intimate but still offers a great variety of top quality coins. Also, all of these dealers are anxiously looking to buy as well. I heard of one individual who sold a large number of coins to several dealers as he walked around. Overall these shows are great time for all of us. We get to relax and socialize a bit while we continue to pursue our passion – coins! We are already looking forward to our next Members Only show in May!
Posted on December 21, 2009 by Don Willis
The most recent PCGS Members Only show concluded this past Saturday. These are really great events that are enjoyed by everyone who attends. As you can guess by the show title, the shows are restricted to PCGS Collector Club Members and PCGS Authorized dealers. This creates an intimate and friendly atmosphere and promotes a lot of serious buying and selling opportunities. Millions of dollars in coins trade hands at every show. It’s hassle free. There’s no public to navigate through or tire kickers getting in the way of your dealings. Of course the fact that these shows are held in Las Vegas at the Palazzo Hotel provides a rich and varied venue that can be enjoyed by both you and your spouse.
We are pleased to announce that we have negotiated four Members shows at the Palazzo for 2010. These shows will be held in February 17-20, May 12-15, July 21-24 and December 15-18. Mark your calendar and we hope to see you there!
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