The Rare Coin Market’s Seasonal Cycle

Posted on December 19, 2009 by

The rare coin market has a very strong seasonal cycle. Basically the coin market is slow in November and even slower in December. I believe that during the holiday season people are thinking about things other than coins. This has been the case for the four decades that I have been paying attention. The only time I remember that rare coins were hot in November and December was in 1979, and that was at the tail end/blow off top period of the massive 1976-1980 bull market when gold and silver were going bananas and the rare coin market was in pure white heat.

Interestingly, rare coins are currently “unseasonably hot.” Action at shows and auctions has been pretty good and dealers are all telling me that they are doing quite a lot of business. While it’s not 1979/80 by any stretch of the imagination, things are definitely much better than they usually are at this time of the year.

The other part of the coin market’s seasonal cycle is that action is usually hot and heavy in January. The year always starts off with the annual Florida “FUN” show, the second biggest show of the year (after the Summer ANA show.) There’s always several massive auctions at the FUN and there’s a lot of pent up demand that translates into action on the bourse floor. I look to this year’s FUN show to be a very important indicator of what 2010 could have in store for rare coins. I’m currently quite positive about the coin market. I like the November/December heat. I like the retail sales activity. I like the fact that dealer inventories are somewhat slim in terms of the “good stuff.” I really like the action in the gold bullion market and I of course hate what the government is doing to the value of the U.S. dollar. So I think coins are going to be strong in 2010.

But I’m a hard money guy who’s very bias towards rare coins so maybe you should take my enthusiasum with a grain of salt. But if you are in the area, check out the Florida coin show January 6-10. Or check out the auction action online. Both Bowers and Merena and Heritage are having auctions.  I’ll blog here at the PCGS blog from the show and I’ll give you a summary of what I saw with a blog right after the show.

Have fun with your coins in 2010!

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